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Application of artificial neural networks to deduce robust forecast performance in technoeconomic contexts
Title
Application of artificial neural networks to deduce robust forecast performance in technoeconomic contexts.
Creator
Dabbas, Mohammad A., Neelakanta, Perambur S., Florida Atlantic University, College of Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Abstract/Description
The focus of this research is concerned with performing forecasting in technoeconomic contexts using a set of certain novel artificial neural networks (ANNs). Relevant efforts in general, entail the task of quantitatively estimating the details about the likelihood of future events (or unknown outcomes/effects) based on past and current information on the observed events (or known causes). Commensurate with the scope and objectives of the research, the specific topics addressed are as follows...
Show moreThe focus of this research is concerned with performing forecasting in technoeconomic contexts using a set of certain novel artificial neural networks (ANNs). Relevant efforts in general, entail the task of quantitatively estimating the details about the likelihood of future events (or unknown outcomes/effects) based on past and current information on the observed events (or known causes). Commensurate with the scope and objectives of the research, the specific topics addressed are as follows: A review on various methods adopted in technoeconomic forecasting and identified are econometric projections that can be used for forecasting via artificial neural network (ANN)-based simulations Developing and testing a compatible version of ANN designed to support a dynamic sigmoidal (squashing) function that morphs to the stochastical trends of the ANN input. As such, the network architecture gets pruned for reduced complexity across the span of iterative training schedule leading to the realization of a constructive artificial neural-network (CANN). Formulating a training schedule on an ANN with sparsely-sampled data via sparsity removal with cardinality enhancement procedure (through Nyquist sampling) and invoking statistical bootstrapping technique of resampling applied on the cardinality-improved subset so as to obtain an enhanced number of pseudoreplicates required as an adequate ensemble for robust training of the test ANN: The training and prediction exercises on the test ANN corresponds to optimally elucidating output predictions in the context of the technoeconomics framework of the power generation considered Prescribing a cone-of-error to alleviate over- or under-predictions toward prudently interpreting the results obtained; and, squeezing the cone-of-error to get a final cone-of-forecast rendering the forecast estimation/inference to be more precise Designing an ANN-based fuzzy inference engine (FIE) to ascertain the ex ante forecast details based on sparse sets of ex post data gathered in technoeconomic contexts - Involved thereof a novel method of .fusing fuzzy considerations and data sparsity.Lastly, summarizing the results with essential conclusions and identifying possible research items for future efforts identified as open-questions.
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Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004097, http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004097
Subject Headings
Artificial intelligence, Fuzzy systems, Long waves (Economics), Multisensor data fusion, Neural networks (Computer science) -- Mathematical models
Format
Document (PDF)