As global temperatures increase throughout the coming decades, species ranges will shift. New combinations of abiotic
conditions will make predicting these range shifts difficult. Biophysical mechanistic niche modeling places bounds on an
animal’s niche through analyzing the animal’s physical interactions with the environment. Biophysical mechanistic niche
modeling is flexible enough to accommodate these new combinations of abiotic conditions. However, this approach is
difficult to implement for aquatic species because of complex interactions among thrust, metabolic rate and heat transfer.
We use contemporary computational fluid dynamic techniques to overcome these difficulties. We model the complex 3D
motion of a swimming neonate and juvenile leatherback sea turtle to find power and heat transfer rates during the stroke.
We combine the results from these simulations and a numerical model to accurately predict the core temperature of a
swimming leatherback. These results are the first steps in developing a highly accurate mechanistic niche model, which can
assists paleontologist in understanding biogeographic shifts as well as aid contemporary species managers about potential
range shifts over the coming decades.