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Dynamical response of multi-patch, flux-based models to the input of infected people: epidemic response to initiated events

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Date Issued:
2008-07-21
Title: Dynamical response of multi-patch, flux-based models to the input of infected people: epidemic response to initiated events.
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Name(s): Liebovitch, Larry S., creator
Schwartz, Ira B., creator
Rho, Young-Ah, creator
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Article
Issuance: single unit
Date Issued: 2008-07-21
Publisher: Elsevier B.V.
Language(s): English
Identifier: 165229 (digitool), FADT165229 (IID), fau:2600 (fedora), 10.1016/j.physleta.2008.05.065 (doi)
FAU Department/College: Department of Psychology Charles E. Schmidt College of Science
Note(s): The time course of an epidemic can be modeled using the differential equations that describe the spread of disease and by dividing people into “patches” of different sizes with the migration of people between these patches. We used these multi-patch, flux-based models to determine how the time course of infected and susceptible populations depends on the disease parameters, the geometry of the migrations between the patches, and the addition of infected people into a patch. We found that there are significantly longer lived transients and additional “ancillary” epidemics when the reproductive rate R is closer to 1, as would be typical of SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) and bird flu, than when R is closer to 10, as would be typical of measles. In addition we show, both analytical and numerical, how the time delay between the injection of infected people into a patch and the corresponding initial epidemic that it produces depends on R.
This manuscript is a version of an article published in Physics Letters A v.372, no. 30 (21 July 2008) p. 5017-5025 http://www.sciencedirect.com/
Subject(s): Communicable diseases--Epidemiology--Mathematical models
Epidemiologic Methods
Differential equations
Dynamics--Mathematical models
Spatial systems--Mathematical models
Population dynamics
Emerging infectious diseases
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/FAU/165229
Links: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.physleta.2008.05.065
Restrictions on Access: ©2008 Elsevier B.V.
Host Institution: FAU

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