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Application of artificial neural networks to deduce robust forecast performance in technoeconomic contexts

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Date Issued:
2014
Summary:
The focus of this research is concerned with performing forecasting in technoeconomic contexts using a set of certain novel artificial neural networks (ANNs). Relevant efforts in general, entail the task of quantitatively estimating the details about the likelihood of future events (or unknown outcomes/effects) based on past and current information on the observed events (or known causes). Commensurate with the scope and objectives of the research, the specific topics addressed are as follows: A review on various methods adopted in technoeconomic forecasting and identified are econometric projections that can be used for forecasting via artificial neural network (ANN)-based simulations Developing and testing a compatible version of ANN designed to support a dynamic sigmoidal (squashing) function that morphs to the stochastical trends of the ANN input. As such, the network architecture gets pruned for reduced complexity across the span of iterative training schedule leading to the realization of a constructive artificial neural-network (CANN). Formulating a training schedule on an ANN with sparsely-sampled data via sparsity removal with cardinality enhancement procedure (through Nyquist sampling) and invoking statistical bootstrapping technique of resampling applied on the cardinality-improved subset so as to obtain an enhanced number of pseudoreplicates required as an adequate ensemble for robust training of the test ANN: The training and prediction exercises on the test ANN corresponds to optimally elucidating output predictions in the context of the technoeconomics framework of the power generation considered Prescribing a cone-of-error to alleviate over- or under-predictions toward prudently interpreting the results obtained; and, squeezing the cone-of-error to get a final cone-of-forecast rendering the forecast estimation/inference to be more precise Designing an ANN-based fuzzy inference engine (FIE) to ascertain the ex ante forecast details based on sparse sets of ex post data gathered in technoeconomic contexts - Involved thereof a novel method of .fusing fuzzy considerations and data sparsity.Lastly, summarizing the results with essential conclusions and identifying possible research items for future efforts identified as open-questions.
Title: Application of artificial neural networks to deduce robust forecast performance in technoeconomic contexts.
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Name(s): Dabbas, Mohammad A., author
Neelakanta, Perambur S., Thesis advisor
Florida Atlantic University, Degree grantor
College of Engineering and Computer Science
Department of Computer and Electrical Engineering and Computer Science
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Electronic Thesis Or Dissertation
Date Created: 2014
Date Issued: 2014
Publisher: Florida Atlantic University
Place of Publication: Boca Raton, Fla.
Physical Form: application/pdf
Extent: 181 p.
Language(s): English
Summary: The focus of this research is concerned with performing forecasting in technoeconomic contexts using a set of certain novel artificial neural networks (ANNs). Relevant efforts in general, entail the task of quantitatively estimating the details about the likelihood of future events (or unknown outcomes/effects) based on past and current information on the observed events (or known causes). Commensurate with the scope and objectives of the research, the specific topics addressed are as follows: A review on various methods adopted in technoeconomic forecasting and identified are econometric projections that can be used for forecasting via artificial neural network (ANN)-based simulations Developing and testing a compatible version of ANN designed to support a dynamic sigmoidal (squashing) function that morphs to the stochastical trends of the ANN input. As such, the network architecture gets pruned for reduced complexity across the span of iterative training schedule leading to the realization of a constructive artificial neural-network (CANN). Formulating a training schedule on an ANN with sparsely-sampled data via sparsity removal with cardinality enhancement procedure (through Nyquist sampling) and invoking statistical bootstrapping technique of resampling applied on the cardinality-improved subset so as to obtain an enhanced number of pseudoreplicates required as an adequate ensemble for robust training of the test ANN: The training and prediction exercises on the test ANN corresponds to optimally elucidating output predictions in the context of the technoeconomics framework of the power generation considered Prescribing a cone-of-error to alleviate over- or under-predictions toward prudently interpreting the results obtained; and, squeezing the cone-of-error to get a final cone-of-forecast rendering the forecast estimation/inference to be more precise Designing an ANN-based fuzzy inference engine (FIE) to ascertain the ex ante forecast details based on sparse sets of ex post data gathered in technoeconomic contexts - Involved thereof a novel method of .fusing fuzzy considerations and data sparsity.Lastly, summarizing the results with essential conclusions and identifying possible research items for future efforts identified as open-questions.
Identifier: FA00004097 (IID)
Degree granted: Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2014.
Collection: FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection
Note(s): Includes bibliography.
Subject(s): Artificial intelligence
Fuzzy systems
Long waves (Economics)
Multisensor data fusion
Neural networks (Computer science) -- Mathematical models
Held by: Florida Atlantic University Libraries
Sublocation: Digital Library
Links: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004097
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004097
Use and Reproduction: Copyright © is held by the author, with permission granted to Florida Atlantic University to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
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Host Institution: FAU
Is Part of Series: Florida Atlantic University Digital Library Collections.