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A Generalized Population Model based on Indian River Lagoon Dolphins
Title
A Generalized Population Model based on Indian River Lagoon Dolphins.
Creator
Stonger, Jon, Noonburg, Erik G., Graduate College
Abstract/Description
For over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute have conducted surveys of the population of bottlenose dolphins, Tersiops truncatus, in Indian River Lagoon along the east coast of Florida. I have constructed a detailed 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used as a tool for conducting a viability analysis that projects the dolphin population into the future by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf survival and adult survival...
Show moreFor over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute have conducted surveys of the population of bottlenose dolphins, Tersiops truncatus, in Indian River Lagoon along the east coast of Florida. I have constructed a detailed 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used as a tool for conducting a viability analysis that projects the dolphin population into the future by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf survival and adult survival rates. The model also includes a power analysis, which compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating abundance. The model shows a strong chance of viability over a 50 year time span, primarily due to the large population size of approximately 700 adult dolphins. The population is vulnerable to long periods of decline if birth, calf or adult survival rates fall below certain thresholds. The sensitivity analysis, based on the partial derivatives of the eigenvalue with respect to each matrix element, shows that the population is most sensitive to changes in adult survival, followed by birth rate and calf survival. Overall, the model simulates the future impacts of demographic change, and thereby provides a tool for conservation efforts.
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Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00005853
Format
Document (PDF)
A generalized stochastic birth/death population model based on Indian RiverLagoon dolphins
Title
A generalized stochastic birth/death population model based on Indian RiverLagoon dolphins.
Creator
Stonger, Jon, Noonburg, Erik G., Florida Atlantic University, Charles E. Schmidt College of Science, Department of Biological Sciences
Abstract/Description
For over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute (HBOI) have conducted surveys of the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population of Indian River Lagoon (IRL) in Florida. I have constructed a 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used to conduct a viability analysis by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf and adult survival rates. The power analysis compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating...
Show moreFor over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute (HBOI) have conducted surveys of the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population of Indian River Lagoon (IRL) in Florida. I have constructed a 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used to conduct a viability analysis by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf and adult survival rates. The power analysis compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating abundance. The sensitivity analysis shows that the population is most sensitive to changes in adult survival, followed by birth rate and calf survival. The model shows a strong chance of viability over a 50 year time span. The population is vulnerable to long periods of decline if birth, calf or adult survival rates fall below certain thresholds. Overall, the model simulates the future impacts of demographic change, providing a tool for conservation efforts.
Show less
Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004163, http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004163
Subject Headings
Animal populations -- Estimates, Bottlenose dolphin -- Florida -- Indian River Lagoon -- Geographical distribution, Indian River (Fla : Lagoon), Marine mammal populations -- Estimates -- Florida -- Mathematical models, Population biology, Stochastic processes
Format
Document (PDF)