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A Generalized Population Model based on Indian River Lagoon Dolphins
Title
A Generalized Population Model based on Indian River Lagoon Dolphins.
Creator
Stonger, Jon, Noonburg, Erik G., Graduate College
Abstract/Description
For over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute have conducted surveys of the population of bottlenose dolphins, Tersiops truncatus, in Indian River Lagoon along the east coast of Florida. I have constructed a detailed 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used as a tool for conducting a viability analysis that projects the dolphin population into the future by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf survival and adult survival...
Show moreFor over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute have conducted surveys of the population of bottlenose dolphins, Tersiops truncatus, in Indian River Lagoon along the east coast of Florida. I have constructed a detailed 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used as a tool for conducting a viability analysis that projects the dolphin population into the future by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf survival and adult survival rates. The model also includes a power analysis, which compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating abundance. The model shows a strong chance of viability over a 50 year time span, primarily due to the large population size of approximately 700 adult dolphins. The population is vulnerable to long periods of decline if birth, calf or adult survival rates fall below certain thresholds. The sensitivity analysis, based on the partial derivatives of the eigenvalue with respect to each matrix element, shows that the population is most sensitive to changes in adult survival, followed by birth rate and calf survival. Overall, the model simulates the future impacts of demographic change, and thereby provides a tool for conservation efforts.
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Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00005853
Format
Document (PDF)
Mathematical modeling of plankton patchiness
Title
Mathematical modeling of plankton patchiness.
Creator
Ather, Simantha S., Noonburg, Erik G., Graduate College
Date Issued
2011-04-08
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fcla/dt/3164458
Subject Headings
Marine plankton, Marine zooplankton, Mathematical models
Format
Document (PDF)
Linking Dynamic Habitat Selection with Wading Bird Foraging Distributions across Resource Gradients
Title
Linking Dynamic Habitat Selection with Wading Bird Foraging Distributions across Resource Gradients.
Creator
Beerens, James M., Noonburg, Erik G., Gawlik, Dale E., Gao, Chang-Qing
Date Issued
2015-06-24
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FAUIR000142
Format
Citation
Development, evaluation, and application of spatio-temporal wading bird foraging models to guide everglades restoration
Title
Development, evaluation, and application of spatio-temporal wading bird foraging models to guide everglades restoration.
Creator
Beerens, James M., Noonburg, Erik G., Florida Atlantic University, Charles E. Schmidt College of Science, Department of Biological Sciences
Abstract/Description
In south Florida, the Greater Everglades ecosystem supports sixteen species of wading birds. Wading birds serve as important indicator species because they are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality. Models that establish habitat relationships from distribution patterns of wading birds can be used to predict changes in habitat quality that may result from restoration and climate change. I developed spatio-temporal species...
Show moreIn south Florida, the Greater Everglades ecosystem supports sixteen species of wading birds. Wading birds serve as important indicator species because they are highly mobile, demonstrate flexible habitat selection, and respond quickly to changes in habitat quality. Models that establish habitat relationships from distribution patterns of wading birds can be used to predict changes in habitat quality that may result from restoration and climate change. I developed spatio-temporal species distribution models for the Great Egret, White Ibis, and Wood Stork over a decadal gradient of environmental conditions to identify factors that link habitat availability to habitat use (i.e., habitat selection), habitat use to species abundance, and species abundance (over multiple scales) to nesting effort and success. Hydrological variables (depth, recession rate, days since drydown, reversal, and hydroperiod) over multiple temporal scales and with existing links to wading bird responses were used as proxies for landscape processes that influence prey availability (i.e., resources). In temporal foraging conditions (TFC) models, species demonstrated conditional preferences for resources based on resource levels at differing temporal scales. Wading bird abundance was highest when prey production from optimal periods of wetland inundation was concentrated in shallow depths. Similar responses were observed in spatial foraging conditions (SFC) models predicting spatial occurrence over time, accounting for spatial autocorrelation. The TFC index represents conditions within suitable depths that change daily and reflects patch quality, whereas the SFC index spatially represents suitability of all cells and reflects daily landscape patch abundance. I linked these indices to responses at the nest initiation and nest provisioning breeding phases from 1993-2013. The timing of increases and overall magnitude of resource pulses predicted by the TFC in March and April were strongly linked to breeding responses by all species. Great Egret nesting effort and success were higher with increases in conspecific attraction (i.e., clustering). Wood Stork nesting effort was closely related to timing of concurrently high levels of patch quality (regional scale) and abundance (400-m scale), indicating the importance of a multi-scaled approach. The models helped identify positive and negative changes to multi-annual resource pulses from hydrological restoration and climate change scenarios, respectively.
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Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004078, http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004078
Subject Headings
Everglades National Park (Fla.) -- Environmental conditions, Restoration ecology -- Florida -- Everglades National Park, Water birds -- Florida -- Geographical distribution, Water birds -- Habitat -- Florida -- Everglades National Park, Wetland restoration -- Florida -- Everglades National Park
Format
Document (PDF)
A generalized stochastic birth/death population model based on Indian RiverLagoon dolphins
Title
A generalized stochastic birth/death population model based on Indian RiverLagoon dolphins.
Creator
Stonger, Jon, Noonburg, Erik G., Florida Atlantic University, Charles E. Schmidt College of Science, Department of Biological Sciences
Abstract/Description
For over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute (HBOI) have conducted surveys of the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population of Indian River Lagoon (IRL) in Florida. I have constructed a 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used to conduct a viability analysis by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf and adult survival rates. The power analysis compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating...
Show moreFor over a decade, researchers at Harbor Branch Oceanographic Institute (HBOI) have conducted surveys of the bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops truncatus) population of Indian River Lagoon (IRL) in Florida. I have constructed a 4-stage population model using the statistical program R. The model is used to conduct a viability analysis by analyzing the relationship between birth, calf and adult survival rates. The power analysis compares survey frequency to expected confidence intervals in estimating abundance. The sensitivity analysis shows that the population is most sensitive to changes in adult survival, followed by birth rate and calf survival. The model shows a strong chance of viability over a 50 year time span. The population is vulnerable to long periods of decline if birth, calf or adult survival rates fall below certain thresholds. Overall, the model simulates the future impacts of demographic change, providing a tool for conservation efforts.
Show less
Date Issued
2014
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004163, http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004163
Subject Headings
Animal populations -- Estimates, Bottlenose dolphin -- Florida -- Indian River Lagoon -- Geographical distribution, Indian River (Fla : Lagoon), Marine mammal populations -- Estimates -- Florida -- Mathematical models, Population biology, Stochastic processes
Format
Document (PDF)
Modeling Long-Term Changes, 1958-2011, In The Reproduction And Territory Dynamics Of Bald Eagles Of Florida Bay, Southern Coastal Everglades
Title
Modeling Long-Term Changes, 1958-2011, In The Reproduction And Territory Dynamics Of Bald Eagles Of Florida Bay, Southern Coastal Everglades.
Creator
Bosley, Jason W., Noonburg, Erik G., Florida Atlantic University, Charles E. Schmidt College of Science, Department of Biological Sciences
Abstract/Description
As top-level piscivores, Bald Eagles are a compelling subject for the study of territory dynamics and are highly representative of the distinctive suite of avian species that occupy Florida Bay. Despite successful recovery of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leuocephalus) throughout the species range, the population breeding within Florida Bay has not mirrored this trend. Beginning in the late 1980s, Florida Bay has suffered in its capacity to support species diversity and abundance as a result of...
Show moreAs top-level piscivores, Bald Eagles are a compelling subject for the study of territory dynamics and are highly representative of the distinctive suite of avian species that occupy Florida Bay. Despite successful recovery of Bald Eagles (Haliaeetus leuocephalus) throughout the species range, the population breeding within Florida Bay has not mirrored this trend. Beginning in the late 1980s, Florida Bay has suffered in its capacity to support species diversity and abundance as a result of extreme changes in hydrology related to altered flows of incoming freshwater. In fact, Bald Eagle territory use in Florida Bay has declined by as much as 43% as year to year variation and sensitivity to transitions between territory states have increased. Florida Bay’s populations of other large, conspicuous fish-eating birds, including Ospreys, Great White Herons, Roseate Spoonbills, and Reddish Egrets each exhibit a similar pattern of decline. The effects of environmental degradation throughout Florida Bay are magnified at higher trophic levels. The negative trend in territory occupancy is most pronounced in southeast Florida Bay whereas effects on territory occupancy in the northwest are minimal. The presence of spatial patterns in territory occupancy, despite regionally available breeding birds, suggests that individuals are evaluating differences in habitat quality for which certain territories are no longer considered viable. Building on our current understanding of the health of this population of Bald Eagles, we have successfully implemented modeling approaches that identify key territory breeding decisions. Loss of early breeding season activity (occupied and active territories) despite maintaining high breeding success indicates that changes in territory dynamics are the result of a failure to breed and not a reproductive failure. As such, future conservation actions should promote early breeding season activity (decisions by breeding pairs to initiate nesting) in areas of Florida Bay that were historically occupied but are now abandoned.
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Date Issued
2017
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004859, http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00004859
Subject Headings
Bald eagle--Everglades National Park--Florida Bay--Geographical distribution., Bald eagle--Breeding--Everglades National Park--Florida Bay., Bald eagle--Habitat--Everglades National Park--Florida Bay., Bird populations--Conservation--Florida.
Format
Document (PDF)
Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection
Title
Determining habitat quality for species that demonstrate dynamic habitat selection.
Creator
Beerens, James M., Frederick, Peter C., Noonburg, Erik G., Gawlik, Dale E.
Date Issued
2015-11-19
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FAUIR000141
Format
Citation