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Examining Student Level Variables as Predictors for On- Time High School Cohort Graduation

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Date Issued:
2018
Abstract/Description:
Recent literature on high school graduation and drop out have shifted the focus from identifying causes of drop out to identifying students who are at risk of dropping out. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) used to identify students seek to use existing data to predict which students have a greater risk of dropping out of school so that schools can intervene early enough to reengage students. Despite widespread attention to individual indicators, there is no defined system of indicators proven to be generalizable across grade levels, specifically at the elementary grade levels. Drawing on the tenets of Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) Ecological Systems Theory, the purpose of this quantitative research study was to determine to what extent the State of Florida’s EWS model can predict on-time cohort graduation in grades 3-8. Using a retrospective longitudinal sample, this study first established that Allensworth and Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator was predictive of dropout, finding that 92.2% of students who were on-track in grade 9 graduated on time. Using this grade 9 indicator as a proxy for graduation, this study then examined the effectiveness of the Florida EWS at predicting on-track status. Through this a priori link to graduation, this study was able to shed light on predictive indicators in the elementary and middle school years without the temporal distance between the predictor grade levels and graduation typically associated with longitudinal studies of this nature. The findings that the Florida EWS successfully predicted 71.6% of future on- and off-track status confirms its use as a predictive indicator of students at risk of not graduating. The academic, behavioral, and engagement indicators found in both Allensworth & Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator and the Florida EWS were found to successfully capture the molar activities of students within the school ecological system and were successful at providing an indication of a student’s development in terms of being on track to graduate on time from high school.
Title: Examining Student Level Variables as Predictors for On- Time High School Cohort Graduation.
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Name(s): McMahon, Brian M., author
Sembiante, Sabrina, Thesis advisor
Florida Atlantic University, Degree grantor
College of Education
Department of Curriculum, Culture, and Educational Inquiry
Type of Resource: text
Genre: Electronic Thesis Or Dissertation
Date Created: 2018
Date Issued: 2018
Publisher: Florida Atlantic University
Place of Publication: Boca Raton, Fla.
Physical Form: application/pdf
Extent: 155 p.
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: Recent literature on high school graduation and drop out have shifted the focus from identifying causes of drop out to identifying students who are at risk of dropping out. The Early Warning Systems (EWS) used to identify students seek to use existing data to predict which students have a greater risk of dropping out of school so that schools can intervene early enough to reengage students. Despite widespread attention to individual indicators, there is no defined system of indicators proven to be generalizable across grade levels, specifically at the elementary grade levels. Drawing on the tenets of Bronfenbrenner’s (1979) Ecological Systems Theory, the purpose of this quantitative research study was to determine to what extent the State of Florida’s EWS model can predict on-time cohort graduation in grades 3-8. Using a retrospective longitudinal sample, this study first established that Allensworth and Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator was predictive of dropout, finding that 92.2% of students who were on-track in grade 9 graduated on time. Using this grade 9 indicator as a proxy for graduation, this study then examined the effectiveness of the Florida EWS at predicting on-track status. Through this a priori link to graduation, this study was able to shed light on predictive indicators in the elementary and middle school years without the temporal distance between the predictor grade levels and graduation typically associated with longitudinal studies of this nature. The findings that the Florida EWS successfully predicted 71.6% of future on- and off-track status confirms its use as a predictive indicator of students at risk of not graduating. The academic, behavioral, and engagement indicators found in both Allensworth & Easton’s (2005) grade 9 on-track indicator and the Florida EWS were found to successfully capture the molar activities of students within the school ecological system and were successful at providing an indication of a student’s development in terms of being on track to graduate on time from high school.
Identifier: FA00005958 (IID)
Degree granted: Dissertation (Ph.D.)--Florida Atlantic University, 2018.
Collection: FAU Electronic Theses and Dissertations Collection
Note(s): Includes bibliography.
Subject(s): Graduation (School)
High school dropouts--Prevention
Education and state--Florida
Held by: Florida Atlantic University Libraries
Sublocation: Digital Library
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/fau/fd/FA00005958
Use and Reproduction: Copyright © is held by the author, with permission granted to Florida Atlantic University to digitize, archive and distribute this item for non-profit research and educational purposes. Any reuse of this item in excess of fair use or other copyright exemptions requires permission of the copyright holder.
Use and Reproduction: http://rightsstatements.org/vocab/InC/1.0/
Owner Institution: FAU
Is Part of Series: Florida Atlantic University Digital Library Collections.